Statistical Analysis Shows South Korea Is the Favorite Against South Africa in the 2026 World Cup
The highly anticipated matchup between South Africa and South Korea, part of Group A of the 2026 World Cup, promises to be a closely contested game, though with a **slight edge for the Asian team**. The match, which takes place this Wednesday (24), is seen as wide open, with nearly half the odds pointing to a favorable outcome for South Korea, though this does not completely rule out the South Africans’ chances.
This detailed projection comes from the School of Applied Mathematics at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV/EMAp). The institution used a combination of a Bayesian model and the Dixon-Coles method, running thousands of simulations to reach its conclusions. This work reinforces FGV’s tradition of applying quantitative methods to the world of soccer in World Cups; this is the third edition of the tournament for which the school has developed a predictive model.
The FGV/EMAp study, which combines statistical analysis and mathematical projections, aims to provide an overview of the likelihood of each outcome. The detailed probabilities have been released, offering a technical perspective on the matchup between the teams. According to the FGV/EMAp analysis, the most likely outcomes for the match between South Africa and South Korea, which will take place in Monterrey, Mexico, have been mapped out.
Statistical Odds for South Africa vs. South Korea
The statistics presented by FGV/EMAp point to a scenario in which **South Korea has a higher probability of winning**. However, the difference is not large enough to rule out South Africa’s chances or the possibility of a tie. The numbers suggest a game where any outcome is possible, but with a slight edge for the Asian team.
According to the FGV/EMAp model, the probabilities are as follows: a **South African victory has a 26.0% chance**, a **draw has a 24.7% probability**, and **a South Korean victory is the most likely outcome, with a probability of 49.4%**.
Most Likely Scores According to a Mathematical Model
In addition to predicting who is most likely to win, the FGV/EMAp study also took a closer look at the most likely scores for the match. The model suggests that certain specific outcomes are more likely to occur, offering a more granular view of what to expect on the field.
A **1-1 tie is considered the most likely individual score**, with a probability of 11.5%. Next, a **1-0 victory for South Korea has a probability of 10.5%**. Rounding out the top three most likely scores, a 2-1 South Korean victory has a probability of 9.2%, according to the FGV/EMAp analysis.
Match and Broadcast Information
The match between South Africa and South Korea is scheduled for 10 p.m. Brasília time. The game will take place in Monterrey, Mexico. Fans who want to follow the match will have the opportunity to watch all the 2026 World Cup games, including this one, via CazéTV’s YouTube livestream.
The FGV/EMAp analysis serves as an interesting guide for soccer enthusiasts who enjoy exploring the **odds and statistics behind the games**. The methodology used aims to bring scientific rigor to the predictions, making following the World Cup even more engaging.
